Why the West Is Losing the Pacific to China, the Arab League, and Just About Everyone Else

by 
Cleo Paskal
Associate Fellow, Royal Institute of 
International Affairs
Huffington Post - November 24, 2010

This is a very good article in the light of understanding the ever increasing presence and influence of the Chinese in the Pacific. It also provides a good assessment of the latest US move to bolster its links with its Pacific allies. 

One key difference is the Chinese policy of bankrolling a great deal of the much needed projects for Pacific island nations during tough economic times.

For the Chinese in particular, the approach is paying handsome dividends through support by Pacific nations at international fora and, of course, markets for each its cheap goods sold at sheltered currency rates.

Read the full article by Cleo Paskal here

US rattled by presence of China in the Pacific

Posted by Coup Four Point Five - 3 November 2010

Voice of America: During her high profile two-week tour of Asia, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the United States will increase its development and security cooperation with countries in the South Pacific. On Wednesday, Clinton will visit Papua New Guinea, and later New Zealand and Australia.

Secretary Clinton's talks with Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Michael Somare will cover a wide range of issues: environmental concerns, women's rights and governance in the resource-wealthy yet economically poor nation.

The top U.S. diplomat's visit to Port Moresby is part of Washington's renewed interest in the region, which in recent years has received increased assistance from China. Most countries in the South Pacific, outside of Australia and New Zealand, are small and poor. A few are politically unstable and several island nations are threatened by rising sea levels.

The Lowy Institute of International Policy in Sydney estimates that in 2008 China pledged $206 million in grants and soft loans to eight small Pacific nations. The U.S. Agency for International Development [USAID] only gave $3.6 million.

Clinton says that is going to change: next year USAID will open an office in Fiji with a $20 million climate change fund. It will be the first USAID presence in the region in 16 years. Military-ruled Fiji is believed to be the biggest recipient of Chinese aid in the region.

"We are working through the Pacific Island Forum to support the Pacific island nations as they strive to really confront and solve the challenges they face from climate change and freedom of navigation," said Clinton.

It is not too late for the U.S. to engage with the region, says Allan Patience, a professor at Sophia University in Tokyo, and an expert on South Pacific nations.

"There is still a strong sense that America is an important presence, but that America has been neglecting the region," Patience said. "China itself has some problems, in that some [Pacific] states are asking too much, demanding too much and are not prepared to follow through with what China wants them to do. A good case would be Fiji, which has been trying to use China against some of the other countries in the region particularly Australia and New Zealand, in defending the takeover by the military couple of years ago," Patience points out. "Australia and New Zealand have reduced their aid, making it difficult for Fiji. Fiji turned to China."

Australia has been the traditional regional power, giving about $1 billion in aid this year. But relations with its neighbors have sometimes been strained because of Canberra's insistence on political or economic reforms.

Professor Patience cautions that politicians in Port Moresby could use Clinton's visit to bolster their legitimacy despite allegations of widespread corruption and human rights abuses. Transparency International this year ranked Papua New Guinea among the most corrupt countries in the world.

About half of the country's income comes from oil drilling and mining for metals such as copper and gold, activities that environmental watchdogs say damage the country's rich biodiversity. The U.S. oil company Exxon Mobil operates a natural gas project that could pump $30 billion into Papua New Guinea's government over 30 years.

From Port Moresby, Clinton travels to New Zealand.

Kurt Campbell, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, says the U.S. will recommit to ties with New Zealand. Campbell adds relations have been largely ignored since Wellington banned nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed ships from its waters 25 years ago.

"There, we will issue the so-called Wellington Declaration which will underscore our desire to see U.S.-New Zealand relations return to a significance in terms of coordination on a range of issues - non-proliferation, politics, climate change, how we work together in the Pacific Islands," Campbell said. "And we, of course, are very grateful for the work and support that New Zealand has provided us and other nations in Afghanistan."

From there, Secretary Clinton travels to Australia, a close ally whose forces serve in Afghanistan.

Clinton and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates will meet with Prime Minister Julia Gillard, Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd and Defense Minister Stephen Smith to mark the 25th anniversary of bilateral ministerial talks.

Secretary Clinton earlier said the allies will continue to modernize defense cooperation to respond to "a more complex maritime environment."

Some Australian political analysts say Canberra is caught between Washington and Beijing. Chinese demand for Australian resources have contributed to an economic boom in Australia and relations with Beijing have grown closer in recent years. An Australian defense ministry report last month warned that increased Chinese military spending is changing the balance of power in Asia as the U.S. experiences military budget pressures.

In recent years, Australian mines have been one of the biggest suppliers to China of iron ore and other raw materials. But even as Sino-Australian economic ties flourished, many Australian officials and foreign affairs analysts remain wary over China's growing regional power.

Clinton wraps up her Asia-Pacific tour in American Samoa, a U.S. territory in the South Pacific devastated by a tsunami in 2009.

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China Trade with Fiji in July 2010

6 October 2010
Source: Xinhua's China Economic Information Service

BEIJING, Oct. 6 (Xinhua) – China's export to and import from Fiji reached 13,533,000 US dollars in July 2010. The trade in January-July reached 69,070,000 US dollars, up 34.8 percent year on year.

Following is a table showing the total value of China's trade with Fiji from 2004 to July 2010, released by the General Administration of Customs:

(Unit: 1,000 U.S. dollars)

Current month Cumulative total       % Change y-o-y (cumulative total)

2004                    38,709              23.6

2005                    45,272             16.9

2006                    69,225             52.9

2007                    66,255            -4.3

2008                    90,377            36.4

2009

January   11,531        11,531           92.6

February  4,033         15,565           61.6

March     6,210         21,774           55.2

April     7,800         29,575           41.2

May       6,219         35,794           28.1

June      6,627         42,420           13.3

July      8,838         51,258           8.8

August    10,713        61,971           9.7

September 8,738         70,710           6.7

October   8,921         79,631           6.3

November  9,808         89,439           5.7

December  7,693         97,132           5.6

2010

January   8,044         8,044            -30.2

February  6,811         14,855           -4.6

March     5,717         20,571           -5.5

April     8,877         29,448           -0.4

May       13,704        43,152           20.6

June      12,386        55,538           30.9

July      13,533        69,070           34.8

Fiji: Limits to 'Look North' policy

by Matt Hill - Lowy Institute, Australia National University
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org

Fiji's so-called 'Look North' policy predates Commodore Bainimarama military-led regime, but there is little doubt that attempts to engage with China have gained traction in the wake of Western condemnation of the December 2006 coup. Indeed, such dynamics are sidelining Australian and New Zealand policy towards Fiji, according to Fijian Brigadier General Pita Driti:

Tell them China is knocking on our door, Russia is knocking on our door. Russia is now more interested in the Pacific. We want a balance of power not bullies like these two.

References to Russia evoke regional memories of Cold War-era Soviet fishing fleets. China's presence, however, is a contemporary reality. Fergus Hanson and others have highlighted the rapid expansion of Beijing's investment in relations with Suva, from the redevelopment of its embassy and pledges of US$83 million in soft loans and grants in 2008, to the transit visit of Vice-President Xi Jinping in February 2009.

How does China balance the costs and benefits of its influence in Fiji, and what does this imply for the longevity of its presence?

Competition with Taiwan is often cited as motivating Beijing's regional engagement, but it is uncertain how well this argument has stacked up in recent years. Since the election of Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeuo in mid-2008, an aura of relative calm has settled over Beijing-Taipei relations.

This truce reflects the Ma government's unwillingness to disturb emerging cross-strait rapprochement. With increasing economic interdependence and the persistence of the mainland military threat, it is uncertain whether Taiwan would risk antagonising Beijing over flag-rights on distant islands.

The converse dynamic may be shaping Beijing's perspective. The PRC's previous willingness to engage in competition over diplomatic recognition was predicated on its own sense of insecurity regarding separatism, as well as a desire to expand its international presence.

These factors too have been influenced by recent events. Improving cross-strait relations over the past two years have reduced Beijing's anxiety over Taiwan's pursuit of de jure independence, while China's rapid ascension to the global limelight has gone a long way to soothing national self-confidence. Consequently, it is likely that the PRC’s sensitivity to Suva’s diplomatic maneuvers has been dulled.

Finally, there is the impact on Beijing's calculations of tacit Australian, New Zealand, and American push-back regarding the impact of China's aid on Western attempts to isolate Suva internationally.

Canberra and Wellington have repeatedly staked their regional political credibility on their opposition to Bainimarama's rule. Backing down would humiliate the Australasian powers. By continuing its support for Suva, Beijing risks stoking an additional element of tension in its relations with the Australasian powers, with whom it shares far more significant political and economic relationships. It is inconceivable that, over the long-term, the PRC's interests in Fiji will be allowed to threaten those in Australasia.

While hardly invalidating the increasing importance of the PRC in the Pacific, these dynamics raise questions as to the long-term viability of the Bainimarama regime's exploitation of those benefits to offset domestic and international weakness.

* Matt Hill is a Lowy Institute intern and New Zealand Freyberg Scholar pursuing a Master's in Strategic Studies at ANU.

China's New Security Diplomacy

Rising StarChina's New Security Diplomacy
Revised edition

Bates Gill, Brookings Institution Press

http://www.brookings.edu/press/Books/2010/risingstar.aspx

Rising Star provides a coherent framework for understanding China's new security diplomacy and guiding America's China policy.

Bates Gill has completely updated his original analysis, focusing on Chinese policy in three areas: regional security mechanisms, nonproliferation and arms control, and questions of sovereignty and intervention. Looking to the future, he offers specific recommendations for a balanced and realistic approach that emphasizes what China and the United States have in common, rather than what divides them. The main arguments and recommendations of the original book continue to hold true and, in many respects, are more compelling now than ever before given China's continued ascendancy.

Praise for Rising Star-
“[Gill’s] analysis is based on solid research and deep knowledge of Chinese thought and behavior, and when the Chinese fail to meet his standards for constructive behavior, he does not hesitate to take them to task for it.”—Foreign Affairs
“This is a significant book. It pulls together a comprehensive argument that only lies scattered in a multiplicity of other places. Gill’s concluding policy recommendations are balanced and sound.”
—David M. Lampton, Johns Hopkins University University—SAIS
“This important study is clearly organized, well written, and well documented; it is sure to be read widely.”—Journal of Asian Studies

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Bates Gill

Bates Gill is director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. He was formerly the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Security and International Studies, and he was the first director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.

China Study Scholarships for Pacific Forum Students

China-PIFS Scholarships 2010/2011 intake

Press Release (20/10)

21st March 2010

Log on to Pacific Islands Forum Website

The Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat is offering ten scholarships to students from Forum Island Countries to study in China .

 

The scholarships, offered in partnership with China under the China-Pacific Islands Forum Scholarship Scheme, will commence in the 2010/2011 academic year. This is the second year that these scholarships have been offered. The first scholarships were awarded last year and currently nine Pacific Islands students are studying in China under this scholarship scheme.

“The Secretariat is pleased to be able to offer this opportunity to students from Forum island countries,” says Tuiloma Neroni Slade, Secretary General of the Forum Secretariat.

Mr Slade adds: “The rapid growth of the Chinese economy has created many new opportunities for trade with and investment in Pacific island countries. Pacific Islanders educated in China will enhance our people’s ability to take advantage of these opportunities. These scholarships are supported with generous funding from the Government of the People’s Republic of China, an important regional partner. The students who take up these scholarships will benefit not only by bringing new skills home, but will help the region by strengthening and deepening our relationship with China.”

The China-PIFS scholarship scheme falls under the authority of the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China through the China Scholarship Council and covers full scholarship under the following categories:-

Undergraduates 4 – 5 academic years

Master’s Degree Students 2 – 3 academic years

Doctoral Degree students 3 – 4 academic years

Scholars 1 – 2 academic years

These scholarships are in addition to those available under bilateral arrangements with Forum Member Governments.

Courses are conducted in the Chinese language, and applicants with no command of Chinese are required to take one to two years’ Chinese language course studies prior to commencing academic study. Such courses will be arranged by the China Scholarship Council. Students will be required to pass the Chinese language courses before being accepted for academic studies. 

 

ENDS.

For further information please contact the Forum Secretariat’s Trade Commission Liaison Officer, Glynis Miller on email glynism@forumsec.org.fj or phone +679 3220 214.

China Fracturing Under Party's Iron Grip

by JOHN GARNAUT

February 27, 2010

China's top expert on social unrest has warned that hardline security policies are taking the country to the brink of "revolutionary turmoil".

In contrast with the powerful, assertive and united China that is being projected to the outside world, Professor Yu Jianrong says his prediction of looming internal disaster reflects on-the-ground surveys and also the views of minister-level Chinese leaders.

He said deepening social fractures are caused by the Communist Party's obsession with preserving its own monopoly on power through "state violence" and "ideology", rather than justice.

Disaster could be averted only if "interest groups" - which he did not identify - were capable of making a rational compromise to subordinate themselves to the Chinese constitution, he said.

Some lawyers, economists and religious and civil society leaders have recently expressed similar views, but it is unusual for someone with Professor Yu's official standing to make such direct and detailed criticisms of core Communist Party policies.

Professor Yu is known as an outspoken insider, who advises top leaders and conducts surveys on social unrest as director of social issues research at the Institute of Rural Affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

He has previously warned of the increasing costs of imposing ''rigid stability'' by force but has not previously been reported as speaking about such immediate dangers.''Some in the so-called democracy movement regard Yu as an agent for the party, because he advises senior leaders on how to maintain their control," said Feng Chongyi, associate professor in China studies at the University of Technology, Sydney.

''I believe Yu is an independent scholar. This speech is very significant because it is the first time Yu has directly confronted the Hu-Wen leadership and said their policies have failed and will not work.''

Pointedly, Professor Yu took aim at the policy substance behind two of President Hu Jintao's trademark phrases: "bu zheteng" (stability, or ''don't rock the boat'') and "harmonious society".

Professor Yu's speech was delivered on December 26, the day after China's leadership shocked liberal intellectuals and international observers by sentencing rights activist Liu Xiaobo to 11 years' jail for helping to draft a manifesto for constitutional and democratic government in China, called Charter 08.

The verdict followed a tumultuous year when the party tightened controls over almost all spheres of China's burgeoning civil society, including the internet, media, legal profession, non-government organisations and business.

Professor Yu's speech has not previously been reported but the text and audio recording of it has recently emerged on Chinese websites.

Professor Yu cited statistics showing the number of recorded incidents of "mass unrest" grew from 8709 in 1993 to more than 90,000 in each of the past three years.

"Most importantly, the number of large-scale mass riots is growing," he said.

"More and more evidence shows that the situation is getting more and more tense, more and more serious.''

He said land disputes had replaced rural tax disputes as the most common source of unrest, while also citing a growing range and severity of urban worker disputes.

Mafia groups were increasingly involved in state-sponsored thuggery, he said, while disgruntled peasants were directing blame at provincial and even central level government.

"For seeking 'bu zheteng' we sacrifice reform and people's rights endowed by law … such stability will definitely bring great social disaster," he said.

"All stability aims for only one goal: the monopoly of power. We often say it's more open now, but that's thanks to science not government." Professor Yu's speech reflects deep disillusionment among China's liberal thinkers, who had hoped President Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao would implement political reforms.

Dr Feng, who is influential in China's liberal intellectual circles, said he still hoped the Hu-Wen administration would ''do something'' to leave more than a "dark stain" on China's political development before stepping down in 2012.

He said ''the conservative forces are currently very strong" and the country's security tightening and potential future loosening were linked to a leadership succession struggle between President Hu and his Vice-Premier, Li Keqiang, on one hand, and former president Jiang Zemin and current Vice-President Xi Jinping on the other.

''I haven't given up the hope that the Hu/Li camp may make some positive political changes to mobilise public support," said Dr Feng.

The current edition of the Southern Weekend newspaper broke a two-decade taboo by publishing a photograph of a youthful President Hu with his early mentor, former party chief Hu Yaobang, who was purged for his radical liberal and reformist leanings.

Chinese internet search results for the names of both leaders were yesterday blocked for "non-compliance with relevant laws".

A Beijing political watcher echoed Professor Yu's warnings and added that the crackdowns in information freedom were being led by officials who have the most to hide, which did not include President Hu or his closest allies.

"Corrupt officials have such a high and urgent interest in controlling the media and especially the internet,"he said. "The more they feel that their days are numbered due to the internet and free information, the more ferocious and corrupt they become, in a really vicious circle leading to final collapse.''

http://www.theage.com.au/world/china-fracturing-under-partys-iron-g...