By Tamara Renee Shie
posted on Asia Times Online - 29 March 2006 - http://www.atimes.com
(Used by permission of Pacific Forum CSIS)
Once considered the strategic domain of the United States and before that of Europe, the South Pacific is falling under the spell of China. As the US and its allies have gradually scaled back their involvement in the region since the early 1990s - closing embassies and reducing aid - China has steadily been moving in. Beijing now has nine diplomatic posts in the South Pacific (including a caretaking group in Kiribati), more in the region than any other country.
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In December, Politburo member Luo Gan and his delegation made a two-day stopover in Tahiti while en route to South America. The visit came a day after the official announcement that China would open a consulate general and cultural center in Tahiti's capital Papeete this year. Concurrently, Beijing conferred Approved Destination Status (ADS) enabling Chinese tourists to visit French Polynesia. These moves are symbolic of China's efforts to increase its presence in the South Pacific.
The South Pacific has long been a diplomatic battleground between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan (as the Republic of China). Currently, eight of the 14 members of the Pacific Islands Forum (excluding Australia and New Zealand) recognize the PRC, while six recognize Taiwan. Sometimes the island nations change allegiances as one side or the other offers inducements - so-called "checkbook diplomacy" - to defect. For example, Kiribati once recognized the PRC; now it recognizes Taiwan.
But the rising strength of the PRC economy has boosted Beijing's confidence in its ability to win over island states and keep them loyal. Countries that recognize the PRC have been showered with major infrastructure and assistance projects, including a US$5.5 million sports complex in Kiribati, another $4 million sport facility in Fiji, and the donation of two cargo ships worth $9.4 million to Vanuatu.
China's contribution to help set up the Pacific Islands Trade Office in Beijing in 2000 came only after the Forum agreed to switch the chairmanship from Palau (which recognizes Taiwan) to Kiribati (which at the time recognized the PRC). Last October Beijing lobbied against Taiwan's inclusion in the South Pacific Tourism Organization (SPTO), saying this would "sabotage" China's own relations with the region. After China pledged an additional $500,000 in organizational support, the members vetoed Taiwan's admission the following week.
Not just checkbook diplomacy
China's forward posture in the South Pacific mirrors its aggressive diplomacy in other regions such as the Middle East, Africa and Latin America: increasing numbers of high-level visits, no-strings-attached aid packages, and investments in industries and critical infrastructure. Checking Taiwan remains a high priority for Beijing, but it no longer explains all of its activities in the South Pacific.
Commercial deals mainly involve developing natural resources needed in China, particularly minerals, timber and fish, while providing much-needed investment for the aid-reliant South Pacific - a win-win situation for both parties. Such agreements have included a $625 million nickel and cobalt mine in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and millions to reinvigorate a Cook Islands fishing and processing plant. In June 2004, Tonga's sole electric-power company received $17 million in "technical assistance" from the Bank of China.
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Many South Pacific leaders now make Beijing their first overseas trip after taking office. Between March 2004 and July 2005, eight regional heads of state paid official visits to China at the invitation (and most likely with the financial support) of the Chinese government. An 80-person entourage accompanied PNG Prime Minister Michael Somare on his February 2004 visit.
In international organizations where "one country, one vote" is the rule, regional blocs can be important. China is a major donor to the Pacific Islands Forum and the highest-paying subscriber to the South Pacific Tourism Organization. China has also had a hand in promoting or delaying votes on United Nations membership for Kiribati, Nauru, Tonga and Tuvalu.
Over the long term, the South Pacific may also prove an important strategic asset to Beijing. In 1997 China established a satellite-tracking station on South Tarawa Atoll in Kiribati. Ostensibly built to assist with China's space program, there was press speculation that the station may have also been used to spy on the US missile range in the nearby Marshall Islands. The station was dismantled after Kiribati's diplomatic defection to Taiwan in November 2003, but Beijing is reportedly looking for another place in the region to set up shop.
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Although Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the European Union and the United States remain major partners for the region, China's contributions have mushroomed in the past five years. In addition to becoming an increasingly important aid and trading partner, China is engaging the region in other ways. These include broadcasting Chinese television programming, expanding student exchanges and paving the way for more Chinese tourists with the granting of ADS to the Cook Islands, Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu in 2004. South Pacific nations are responding positively to these Chinese initiatives.
US neglect
China's growing activities have occurred in the context of an increasingly distracted and disengaged United States. In the 1990s Washington closed its US Information Agency offices and its USAID (United States Agency for International Development) Regional Development Office and ended the Fulbright study exchange program in the region. The number of Peace Corps missions in the South Pacific has been halved since 1995.
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As well, the United Kingdom recently closed three diplomatic posts in the region and withdrew from the Pacific Community, the regional development body.
Relatively small investments in scholarships, such as those offered by the East West Center's Pacific Islands Development Program, and other public-diplomacy initiatives provide an opportunity for an exchange of ideas between the US and the South Pacific and convey the message that Washington cares about something beyond the "global war on terrorism", such as supporting democracy, human rights, development and trade. The US needs to work with its allies in the region, not to contain China, but to strengthen governments and economies in the South Pacific.
Influence is not necessarily a zero-sum game, but the US is sending all the wrong signals. South Pacific nations want a range of options, not an exchange of one dominant partner for another. However, the current message is that China is paying attention to the region and the US is not. If Washington continues to look the other way, Beijing will not only woo the South Pacific but possibly win it.
Tamara Renee Shie (tamara.shie@nsepnet.org) is a research assistant on East Asian security issues at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington. She is also a member of the Pacific Forum's Young Leaders Program. Her comments represent her views and do not reflect official policy or the position of the National Defense University or the US government.
