China's Pacific Strategy Unfurled

By Zhang Guihong, Asia Times Online

10 April 2008 - http://www.atimes.com

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say.

Two years ago, when addressing the opening of the first Ministerial Conference of the China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Forum, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said, "To foster friendship and cooperation with the Pacific island countries is not a diplomatic expedience. Rather, it is a strategic decision."

He outlined China's Pacific policy, saying, "China and the Pacific island countries, both being developing countries in the Asia Pacific region, have common interests and meet common challenges. China is committed to promoting peace and development through cooperation, and will continue to strengthen its friendship and cooperation with the Pacific island countries on the basis of the 'Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence'. The forum will set a new model for South-South cooperation."

To have a better understanding and in-depth study of China's Pacific policy, three questions have to be answered.

Question 1: Why the Pacific is important for China?

The Pacific Island region (here excluding Australia and New Zealand) covers 20 million square miles of ocean and 117,000 square miles of land area. The area has population of nearly 8 million among the 14 independent states. The total GDP of these islands (in purchasing power parity terms) was approximately $24 billion in 2006. Although small in total population and relatively low in economic development, the Pacific island region is strategically important for several reasons.

First, the geographic position of the Pacific is very important for the development of China's maritime interests. This area is located at the gateway of the Pacific Ocean from east to west and south to north. Along with its expanding interests and influence from land to sea, China will pay more attention to overseas development. For example, a number of observatories can be set up in the Pacific, once foreign relations are established, which will be important for China's future satellite and space technologies.

Second, while China has diplomatic relations with eight Pacific islands countries (Cook Islands, Fiji, Micronesia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu), Taiwan has six (Nauru, Palau, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Marshall Islands), accounting for one quarter of the total 24 countries with which Taiwan has diplomatic ties. China has much to do in this area to check and reverse Taiwan's diplomatic inroads. Friendly and cooperative relations between China and all Pacific islands countries will help with understanding and acceptance of the "One China" principle at all government, enterprise and non-governmental levels.

Third, while two internal major powers (Australia and New Zealand), and two external major powers (The United States and France), have their respective spheres of influence and provide security and stability for the Pacific Islanders, China's influence in the region is mainly diplomatic and economic. China's engagement in the region has to consider the interests and concerns of both internal island countries and external major powers.

Question 2: What are China's interests and objectives in the Pacific?

Some Western specialists argue that China's main objectives in the Pacific are to switch diplomatic relations and to garner influence but not replace the United States as the regional hegemonic power. Others argue that China has devised a comprehensive strategy to take advantage of waning US interest in the region since the end of the Cold War. Some add that China has attempted to enhance its penetration of the region through emigration.

To my understanding, natural resources, trade and economic cooperation are China's basic interests and primary objectives in the Pacific, and therefore the most important motives of China's active engagement in the region.

The respective economies of China and the Pacific island countries are mutually complementary. China has funding and technical expertise. The island countries are rich in natural resources. Herein lies huge potential for bilateral cooperation and China has undertaken a series of steps to promote this cooperation. According to the China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Guiding Framework which was concluded in 2006, China pledged $375 million in development assistance and low-interest loans without any political strings attached.

China promised to provide enterprises of the Pacific island countries with favorable loans of about $400 million within three years, as well as five aid programs. China gave zero-tariff treatment to the majority of exports to China from the least developed countries in the region. China also canceled their debts that became mature at the end of 2005 and has expressed interest in a free-trade agreement with Pacific Island countries. Furthermore, as a dialogue partner of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), China has set up the China-PIF Cooperation Fund to help finance the Pacific Plan designed to promote regional cooperation.

Questions 3: How will China implement an effective strategy in the Pacific?

First, long-term relations with mutual trust depend on to what extent China can help Pacific island countries from being marginalized because of economic globalization and to what extent China can work together with them to deal with threats such as environmental degradation and the rise of sea level. Also essential is to what extent China can assist them to overcome development difficulties and debt burdens.

Second, China's active engagement and growing influence in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa have attracted much concern and suspicion from other major powers. Pacific island countries are located near the US, Japan and Australia, and have traditional relations with some European countries. This situation needs China to emphasize the importance of major power coordination and act in an harmonious manner.

Third, it is not advisable for China cooperate with the Pacific island countries according to the line of the Taiwan issue, nor exclude those which have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. This will divide the region into two parts and not prove beneficial to the development of regionalism. In contrast, if China can provide multilateral assistance for the Pacific island countries with the region as a whole to consider, diplomatic relations will be changed gradually to favor China.

Zhang Guihong is professor of international relations and deputy director of the Center for UN Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.